Odds are numbers, which are used to calculate
the winning ratio at a given stake. In general the rule is the higher odds
the lower probability of winning.
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European Odds (decimals)
Odds show how many units the
bookmaker pays out per unit staked (European odds X stake =
payout).
Examples:
|
Odds
|
Stake
|
payout
|
Winning
|
|
1.80
|
300 Euro
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1.80 X 300 Euro = 540 Euro
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300 Euro X (1.80 - 1) = 240
Euro
|
|
2.50
|
200 Euro
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2.50 X 200 Euro = 500 Euro
|
200
Euro X (2.50 - 1) = 300 Euro
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UK Odds (fractions)
Odds show how many units you win per unit staked (UK odds X
stake = winning).
Examples:
|
Odds
|
Stake
|
payout
|
Winning
|
|
4/5
|
300 Euro
|
(4/5+1) X 300 Euro = 540
Euro
|
300 Euro X 4/5 = 240
Euro
|
|
3/2
|
200 Euro
|
(3/2+1) X 200 Euro = 500
Euro
|
200
Euro X 3/2 = 300 Euro
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US Odds
Odds divided into positive
odds and negative odds:
Negative odds - used when stake is bigger then winnings and
show the stake needed for a winning of 100 units.
Positive odds - used when stake is smaller then winnings and show
the winnings for a 100 units bet.
Examples:
|
Odds
|
Stake
|
payout
|
Winning
|
|
-125 (N)
|
300 Euro
|
(1+100/125) X 300 Euro =
540 Euro
|
300 Euro X 100/125 =
240 Euro
|
|
150 (P)
|
200 Euro
|
(1+150/100) X 200 Euro =
500 Euro
|
200
Euro X 150/100 = 300 Euro
|
Notes
1. Some bookmakers support more than one of the standards.
2. When odds converted from UK standard, round-off adjustments
may occur.
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The payout & probability calculation for each
outcome is based on bookmaker's posted odds.The calculations are done for an
event with three outcomes - H (home win), D (draw) or V
(visitors win), but can be used for any outcomes in condition is that the
outcomes cover all possible outcomes of the event.
Step 1 - Payout Calclulation
First we calculate the customer's payout. The payout shows how much
the customer receives in winnings whenever he makes a bet of 1 Euro
(all outcomes). If odds[H] is the odds for a home win, then the bookmakers
price for a payout of 1 Euro in case of a victory for the home team is
1/odds[H]. For all three outcomes the bookmaker event price is:
Bookmaker event price = 1/odds[H]
+ 1/odds[D] + 1/odds[V]
If the bookmaker receive the bets in the right proportions, then the payout for
the customers is:
Payout = (1 / bookmaker
event price ) X 100%
Examples
(European):
|
Home
|
Draw
|
Visitor
|
Bookmaker event price
|
Payout
|
|
1.80
|
3.20
|
4.00
|
1/1.80 + 1/3.20 + 1/4.00 = 1.118
|
(1/1.118) X 100% = 89.4%
|
|
1.50
|
2.80
|
8.50
|
1/1.50 + 1/2.80 + 1/8.50 = 1.141
|
(1/1.141) X 100% = 87.6%
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Step 2 - Probability Calclulation
In order to calculate odds probability, multiply the bookmaker's price
for all outcomes by the payout:
Probability[H] = ( 1/odds[H] ) X Payout
Probability[D] = ( 1/odds[D] ) X Payout
Probability[V] = ( 1/odds[V] ) X Payout
Examples
(continued):
Probability[H] = ( 1/1.80 ) X 89.4% = 49.7%
Probability[D] = ( 1/3.20) X 89.4% = 27.9%
Probability[V] = ( 1/4.00) X 89.4% = 22.4%
The calcluated probabilities are the bookmaker's event results estimated
probabilities .
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Betting on highest odds will not improve your
winning ratios, but using highest odds will improve your long
term profit from betting by 1525%
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Value Betting is a
mathematical way of calculating how good an odd is. Long term, events with
a high value will be profitable.
In order to find bookmakers Value Bet we multiply the bookmakers odds with
event percentage-probability:
Value = ( Odds X event
percentage-probability (%) ) / 100
When value is higher then 1.00
you have a Value Bet. It means that, statistically, your winning will be
higher then your stake, so long term you can only win. The only problem with
this calculation is that in sport events, you can not precisely determine
probabilities since too many factors involved, so we use the average
probabilities of all bookmakers for each event.
Our Value Bets table helps you
find the best Value Bets among the enormous amount of odds at the site, so you
can profit betting the best Value Bets available.
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Sure Bet is a bet
that guarantees winning with any outcome of the event. A Sure Bet is a result
of the difference between odds of different bookmakers in a way that, in the
right proportions, your stake is lower then your winnings for any outcome.
Example:
|
Home
|
Draw
|
Visitor
|
Total
|
| Odds |
2.50
|
3.33
|
4.00
|
-
|
| Stake |
1/2.50 = 0.40 Euro
|
1/3.33= 0.30 Euro
|
1/4.00= 0.25 Euro
|
0.40 + 0.30 + 0.25 = 0.95 Euro
|
You will need to stake 0.95 Euro to win 1 Euro. Or, said in
another way, for each 1 Euro you bet, you will receive 1 / 0.95
= 1.05 Euro back for any event outcome.
You need to be aware of the following
notes if you intend to play Sure bets:
1. Check tax or costs of payment and pay-off.
2. Make sure the bookmaker quotes do not get changed after you
placed your bets.
3. Some bookmakers require that you bet on more than a single match to accept
your bet.
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Back-Lay
Arbitrage is a bet that you will have a guaranteed winning with any outcome of
the event. A Back-Lay Arbitrage is a result of the difference between odds of
different bookmakers (back) and exchanges lay odds in a way that, in the
correct proportions, your stake is lower than your winnings for any outcome.
The Back-Lay Arbitrage occurs when a back odd is higher then the equivalent lay
odd, so you can back the odd and lay it using lower ratio.
You need to be aware of the following notes if
you intend to play Back-Lay Arbitrages:
1. Check tax or costs of payment and pay-off.
2. Make sure the bookmaker/exchange quotes do not shift after you placed your
bets.
3. Some bookmakers require that you bet on more than a single match to accept
your bet.
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Bonus Arbitrage
is a bet that you will have a guaranteed winning with any outcome of the event.
A Bonus Arbitrage is a result of the bonuses added to your actual stake in
a way that, in the correct proportions, your actual stake (without the bonuses)
is lower than your fixed winnings for any outcome.
You need to be aware of the following notes if
you intend to play Bonus Arbitrages:
1. Check tax or costs of payment and pay-off.
2. Make sure the bookmaker/exchange quotes do not shift after you placed your
bets.
3. Some bookmakers require that you bet on more than a single match to accept
your bet.
4. All bonuses are subject to bookmaker's terms and conditions, including
rollover requirements.
5. Some bonuses may only be credited to your account after bet placed or event
settled.
6. Make sure that listed offers did not expire.
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